Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x478a…8786
sports · 183 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$330 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$329 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 1 History 182 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$140
14 days−$203
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Marie Bouzkova 53¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 28¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Phoenix Mercury 63¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Tundra Esports $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 37¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Over 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Indiana Fever 26¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Thunder 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 Under 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Phoenix Mercury 46¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 66¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $5 +$7 +143%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 09 $5 +$7 +132%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -93%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 $0 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 07 $5 $0 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$289
crypto 14% −$64
other 6% +$21
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 53¢ $5 54m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato SELL Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 99¢ $7 55m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 72¢ $5 1h
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang SELL Yujia Huang 99¢ $6 2h
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang BUY Yujia Huang 81¢ $5 3h
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 24¢ $5 44h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $5 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 62¢ $5 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 91¢ $5 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $5 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 40¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 47¢ $5 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $5 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics BUY Indiana Fever 88¢ $5 3d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun BUY New York Liberty 87¢ $5 3d
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 85¢ $5 3d
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 100¢ $5 3d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Marin Cilic 42¢ $5 3d
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan BUY Daniel Galan 90¢ $5 3d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering SELL Benjamin Bonzi 100¢ $5 3d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki SELL Vitaliy Sachko 100¢ $6 3d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering BUY Benjamin Bonzi 91¢ $5 3d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki BUY Vitaliy Sachko 87¢ $5 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 100¢ $7 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 69¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -17.0% -24.9% 55% 32% -27.6%
≤30d 182 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 35% -19.0%
≤90d 182 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 35% -19.0%
all 182 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 35% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 35% -19.0%
10% -37.3% 27% -26.7%
15% -43.4% 24% -33.8%
20% -48.9% 20% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.29 · official $4.29 (match) · 448 history records