Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x478b…8edb world 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$380 (-13%) realized −$293 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%138W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$386
sports 27% +$42
other 24% −$64
crypto 2% +$37
politics 2% −$10
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -23.2% -30.5% 52% 40% -11.3%
≤30d 54 -20.4% -28.0% 56% 39% -10.5%
≤90d 119 -18.5% -26.3% 64% 34% -16.2%
all 193 -8.2% -16.9% 72% 31% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 31% -19.9%
10% -24.9% 17% -27.6%
15% -32.1% 12% -34.6%
20% -38.8% 7% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses138 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions26
Markets (closed)193 / 219
History coverage160d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $35 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 41¢ 10¢ $61 $14 −$47 (-77%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 54¢ 16¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-71%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 61¢ 16¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -69%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $65 +$23 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$12 -68%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $58 +$14 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $86 −$70 -82%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$9 +12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$38 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 +$6 +10%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $42 +$26 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$34 -86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +35%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 +$11 +70%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $13 −$8 -59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $59 +$5 +8%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 11h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.67 · official $301.67 (match) · 654 history records