Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x478c…d24e crypto 288 markets active 2d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%129W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$107
14 days−$18
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$52
crypto 29% −$60
sports 22% +$32
finance 17% −$86
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 43% -24.8%
≤30d 266 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 44% -14.6%
≤90d 286 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 43% -14.9%
all 286 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 43% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -14.9%
10% -19.7% 40% -23.0%
15% -27.5% 36% -30.5%
20% -34.6% 30% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses129 / 157
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)286 / 288
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 286 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $95 −$14 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $17 +$6 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 +$5 +510%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$3 +89%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 798 history records