Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x478d…7ee3 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$3
politics 24% −$1
sports 19% −$28
other 16% +$9
finance 2% −$11
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 21 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 62 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 3% -10.0%
all 77 +11.0% +0.4% 45% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 6% -10.4%
10% -9.2% 4% -19.0%
15% -18.0% 4% -26.8%
20% -26.0% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage524d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $63 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $87 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $65 −$11 -18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $67 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $30 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $217 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $26 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 17 $83 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $137 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $23 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $7 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 287 history records