Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x4791…07f8 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,542 (-16%) realized −$2,527 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%43W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$2,453
sports 19% +$36
world 1% −$191
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 106 +2.1% -7.7% 41% 41% -24.8%
all 106 +2.1% -7.7% 41% 41% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 41% -24.8%
10% -16.5% 40% -32.0%
15% -24.6% 36% -38.6%
20% -32.0% 34% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$146 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized−$2,527
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses43 / 63
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage85d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $166 $168 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $158 $156 −$2 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $166 $151 −$15 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 09 $1 $0 +27%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 05 $707 +$204 +29%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 05 $190 −$184 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $419 −$409 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $35 −$34 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $41 +$30 +73%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 +$64 +126%
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 02 $37 −$36 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 02 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? May 02 $8 +$39 +473%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $69 −$68 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $71 +$197 +276%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $409 −$168 -41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 28 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $127 +$31 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $75 +$100 +133%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $26 +$63 +245%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $70 +$197 +281%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $90 +$84 +93%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 26 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 26 $12 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 26 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 26 $13 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 26 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 26 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$50 +101%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$70 +139%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$64 +128%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$79 +158%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $160 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $170 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $168 1h
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 49d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) SELL Club Atlético de Madrid 85¢ $912 52d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 52d
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) BUY Club Atlético de Madrid 6¢ $190 53d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $419 53d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Club Atlético de Madrid 65¢ $707 53d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $35 55d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 55d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $70 55d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 90¢ $115 55d
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $37 55d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $41 55d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 55d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 55d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 55d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 56d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 56d
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 56d
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 56d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 43¢ $69 56d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 26¢ $71 58d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $75 58d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 58d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $226 58d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 58d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.71 · official $474.71 (match) · 175 history records