Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4793…a932 other 338 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+2%) realized +$144 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%269W / 48L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$246
crypto 27% −$17
sports 9% +$7
tech 3% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.4% -16.2% 80% 35% -3.1%
≤30d 55 +1.9% -7.8% 87% 38% -4.3%
≤90d 317 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 23% -7.8%
all 317 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 23% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 23% -7.8%
10% -18.0% 15% -16.6%
15% -25.9% 9% -24.7%
20% -33.2% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses269 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)317 / 338
History coverage66d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 82¢ $193 $183 −$10 (-5%)
Vladimír Darida: 2+ shots No 70¢ 99¢ $82 $117 +$35 (+42%)
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals No 75¢ 88¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Vladimír Darida: 3+ shots No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Vladimír Darida: 4+ shots No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots No 40¢ 68¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+70%)
Vladimír Darida: 5+ shots No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Brazil 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $233 +$9 +4%
Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots Jun 17 $14 +$6 +42%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots Jun 16 $40 +$25 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$3 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $65 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $46 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $47 +$9 +20%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Max Dowman: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $14 +$1 +4%
Ibrahim Mbaye: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $18 +$1 +4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 +$2 +96%
Solly March: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $38 +$2 +5%
Jamie Gittens: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$2 +100%
Romaine Mundle: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 5.5 May 25 $7 +$3 +46%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5 May 25 $7 +$3 +40%
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 5.5 May 25 $7 +$3 +50%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 May 25 $8 +$2 +24%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 25 $17 +$3 +18%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $36 +$1 +4%
Ryan Sessegnon: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $97 +$2 +2%
Mikel Merino: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $118 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 $0 +11%
Phil Foden: Anytime Goalscorer May 20 $5 $0 +11%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $43 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots BUY No 40¢ $31 1h
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $50 1h
Vladimír Darida: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Vladimír Darida: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Vladimír Darida: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Vladimír Darida: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Vladimír Darida: 2+ shots BUY No 99¢ $55 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $37 2h
Vladimír Darida: 2+ shots BUY No 44¢ $22 3h
Vladimír Darida: 2+ shots BUY No 43¢ $5 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 22h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists BUY Yes 98¢ $21 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $3 25h
João Neves: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $99 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 78¢ $1 42h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 78¢ $4 42h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 78¢ $4 44h
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $4 45h
Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots BUY No 70¢ $14 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 46h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 46h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 98¢ $5 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 46h
Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots BUY No 61¢ $40 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 3d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.67 · official $594.67 (match) · 1165 history records