Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4796…d6ca other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$265 (-28%) realized −$264 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$131
14 days−$164
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$165
sports 13% −$43
crypto 6% −$58
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.6% -33.6% 45% 45% -33.5%
≤30d 13 -26.9% -33.9% 46% 46% -34.2%
≤90d 13 -26.9% -33.9% 46% 46% -34.2%
all 38 -50.6% -55.3% 34% 24% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 24% -39.1%
10% -59.6% 24% -45.0%
15% -63.5% 16% -50.3%
20% -67.1% 11% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage230d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$8 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 +$30 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$64 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 19? Nov 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 19? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 18? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana reach $180 November 10-16? Nov 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana dip to $150 November 10-16? Nov 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 17? Nov 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 15? Nov 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Nov 10 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 12? Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 12? Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 14? Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10PM ET Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Nov 09 $10 $0 +3%
Hornets vs. Heat Nov 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Trail Blazers vs. Heat Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Nuggets Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. Nets Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Nov 04 $10 +$14 +144%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Nov 04 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $41 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $56 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $56 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 8d
Clippers vs. Rockets BUY Clippers 19¢ $3 128d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 217d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 218d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 218d
Will Solana reach $180 November 10-16? BUY Yes $7 218d
Will Solana dip to $150 November 10-16? BUY No $2 218d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 220d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 220d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 221d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 221d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 221d
Suns vs. Clippers BUY Suns 74¢ $20 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.16 · official $149.16 (match) · 54 history records