Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x4796…e380 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$96
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate82%27W / 6L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$664per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$4,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days−$873
30 days−$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$476
crypto 21% +$160
tech 20% +$173
sports 11% −$738
politics 1% +$76
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 67% +12.8%
≤30d 16 +7.8% -2.4% 94% 38% -16.8%
≤90d 27 -6.7% -15.6% 81% 30% -13.1%
all 33 -5.4% -14.4% 82% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 33% -9.3%
10% -22.6% 15% -18.0%
15% -30.1% 12% -25.9%
20% -36.9% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$928) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$170 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$4,774
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage244d
Avg bet$664
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $2,670 $2,715 +$45 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $843 $900 +$57 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $306 $280 −$27 (-9%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 99¢ $232 $251 +$19 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $252 $222 −$30 (-12%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $145 $187 +$43 (+30%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $107 $96 −$12 (-11%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $178 +$21 +12%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $161 +$67 +42%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $27 +$3 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $595 +$15 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $993 −$993 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $963 +$14 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $27 +$22 +80%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 05 $378 +$19 +5%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? Jun 01 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 01 $24 +$3 +14%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $1,009 +$11 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $928 +$135 +15%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 29 $902 +$28 +3%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 27 $631 +$49 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? May 27 $223 +$22 +10%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? May 19 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 08 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 03 $1,488 +$14 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 23 $1,481 +$6 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $226 +$30 +13%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $974 +$69 +7%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in March? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hong Kong have less than 150mm of precipitation in March? Mar 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on March 2 Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on March 2 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Feb 05 $92 +$16 +17%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $5,782 +$160 +3%
Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%? Dec 10 $145 +$76 +53%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 03 $5,688 +$278 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 14h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 90¢ $993 10d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $977 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 97¢ $595 10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 15d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 99¢ $397 16d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 50¢ $39 16d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 18d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $255 18d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $158 19d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 19d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $178 19d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $27 19d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $232 19d
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $28 19d
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $27 19d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $145 22d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $277 22d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $111 23d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $23 23d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $218 23d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $118 23d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $96 23d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $20 23d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? BUY Yes $3 23d
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $24 23d
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $24 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,063 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,774.29 · official $4,774.29 (match) · 291 history records