Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4798…1920 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$738 (+0%) realized +$736 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,468per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$7
14 days−$29
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$174
politics 41% −$112
sports 7% +$960
tech 3% −$7
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$4
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -2.6% -11.9% 9% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 125 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 6% -9.2%
all 132 -2.2% -11.5% 9% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 5% -9.2%
10% -20.0% 5% -17.9%
15% -27.7% 5% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,771) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$6 · ×19.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$736
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,468
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $254 $256 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,328 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,504 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1,176 +$6 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,987 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $399 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,045 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,077 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,998 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,771 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,005 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,763 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $6,597 −$9 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,295 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $68 +$64 +93%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,246 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,088 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,923 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $647 +$3 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $650 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,462 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,595 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $3,922 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,720 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,455 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,592 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,650 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $625 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $626 5h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $610 23h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $611 25h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $659 26h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $660 27h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $996 28h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $997 31h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $765 46h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $766 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $758 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $760 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $557 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $558 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $388 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $389 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $398 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $399 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $366 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $406 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $407 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $381 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $382 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $350 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $350 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $435 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $435 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $381 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $381 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.21 · official $256.21 (match) · 425 history records