Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x479d…080f other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,236 (+19%) realized +$1,166 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$103
14 days+$445
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$124
world 17% +$1,420
sports 9% −$84
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.4% -37.0% 50% 50% -29.8%
≤30d 22 -11.5% -19.9% 55% 55% +6.8%
≤90d 25 +5.3% -4.7% 56% 56% +37.8%
all 26 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 54% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 54% +10.8%
10% -17.2% 50% +0.2%
15% -25.2% 46% -9.5%
20% -32.5% 38% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$135 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,025
Realized+$1,166
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)26 / 40
History coverage169d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $200 $269 +$69 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 +$24 +78%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $1,013 +$445 +44%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $112 +$150 +134%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $512 +$315 +62%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $503 −$59 -12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 08 $999 +$1,439 +144%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 23 $999 −$999 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $112 6d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 8d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 8d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 10d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.02 · official $1,025.03 (match) · 73 history records