Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x479d…d469 politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,380 (+7%) realized +$8,190 · open +$190
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$7,138per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$15,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,076
7 days+$5,448
14 days+$5,760
30 days+$5,760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$4,659
other 30% +$611
finance 12% +$341
world 3% +$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.9% +12.1% 83% 33% -3.1%
≤30d 11 +15.3% +4.4% 91% 18% -3.9%
≤90d 12 +33.5% +20.8% 92% 25% -3.9%
all 12 +33.5% +20.8% 92% 25% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 25% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.2% 25% -13.1%
15% -1.3% 17% -21.5%
20% -11.0% 17% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$712 vs −$2,068 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$15,385
Realized+$8,190
Unrealized+$190
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage34d
Avg bet$7,138
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $8,585 $8,343 −$242 (-3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $5,560 $6,020 +$460 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 77¢ 86¢ $589 $658 +$69 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $455 $362 −$94 (-21%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 20 $33,684 −$2,068 -6%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $227 +$262 +115%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $22,419 +$6,882 +31%
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 17 $459 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 15 $15,350 +$340 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $4,290 +$28 +1%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 11 $1,630 +$55 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $271 +$27 +10%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $2,964 +$51 +2%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $10,932 +$179 +2%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $2 +$4 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 86¢ $31,616 46m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $1,451 38h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $27,850 38h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $98 46h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $84 46h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $4,383 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $8,524 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12,919 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $3,123 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3,106 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,877 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2,755 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $134 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,092 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,181 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 84¢ $84 2d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $179 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $180 3d
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 97¢ $200 3d
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 97¢ $264 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $97 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $105 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $717 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 91¢ $18 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 90¢ $58 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $562 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 37¢ $37 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 33¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,384.73 · official $15,384.71 (match) · 156 history records