trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +23.9% | +12.1% | 83% | 33% | -3.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +15.3% | +4.4% | 91% | 18% | -3.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +33.5% | +20.8% | 92% | 25% | -3.9% |
| all | 12 | +33.5% | +20.8% | 92% | 25% | -3.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +20.8% | 25% | -3.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +9.2% | 25% | -13.1% |
| 15% | -1.3% | 17% | -21.5% |
| 20% | -11.0% | 17% | -29.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 89¢ | 86¢ | $8,585 | $8,343 | −$242 (-3%) |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | $5,560 | $6,020 | +$460 (+8%) |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 77¢ | 86¢ | $589 | $658 | +$69 (+12%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $455 | $362 | −$94 (-21%) |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 39¢ | 37¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 4¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-93%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 20 | $33,684 | −$2,068 | -6% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J | Jun 20 | $227 | +$262 | +115% |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 19 | $22,419 | +$6,882 | +31% |
| Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Jun 17 | $459 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | Jun 15 | $15,350 | +$340 | +2% |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 14 | $4,290 | +$28 | +1% |
| Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar | Jun 11 | $1,630 | +$55 | +3% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Jun 11 | $7 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? | Jun 09 | $271 | +$27 | +10% |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? | Jun 09 | $2,964 | +$51 | +2% |
| Starmer out by June 15, 2026? | Jun 08 | $10,932 | +$179 | +2% |
| Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? | May 21 | $2 | +$4 | +233% |