Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47a0…ee4f sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+7%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate96%23W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$23
other 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +8.4% -1.9% 96% 25% -3.8%
≤30d 24 +8.4% -1.9% 96% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 24 +8.4% -1.9% 96% 25% -3.8%
all 24 +8.4% -1.9% 96% 25% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 25% -3.8%
10% -11.3% 17% -13.0%
15% -19.9% 12% -21.4%
20% -27.8% 4% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×24.35 per $1 lost it wins $24.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses23 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $45 +$1 +3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +36%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $39 +$2 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $3 +$1 +22%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $30 +$3 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $34 +$1 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $19 +$2 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +31%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $45 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 10h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 10h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $43 24h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $5 32h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 94¢ $39 34h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $38 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 81¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $19 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 88¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 90¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 49 history records