Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47a7…6f9d other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$4
crypto 30% −$40
sports 19% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -23.6% -30.9% 23% 23% -20.2%
≤30d 62 -23.6% -30.9% 23% 23% -20.2%
≤90d 62 -23.6% -30.9% 23% 23% -20.2%
all 62 -23.6% -30.9% 23% 23% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 23% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 21% -27.8%
15% -43.5% 18% -34.8%
20% -49.1% 16% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 45¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +212%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +157%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +218%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $7 +$13 +185%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $7 −$5 -63%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $7 −$5 -72%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -54%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -51%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -34%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +477%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -73%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -55%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -59%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -63%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 -34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 −$5 -73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +86%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$12 +223%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $1.02 (match) · 122 history records