Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47a9…76ab weather 513 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$648 (-1%) realized −$648 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%504W / 11L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day169.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,236
7 days−$589
14 days−$903
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -1.7% -11.0% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 515 +4.2% -5.7% 98% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 515 +4.2% -5.7% 98% 1% -10.0%
all 515 +4.2% -5.7% 98% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 1% -18.7%
15% -23.0% 1% -26.5%
20% -30.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$225 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses504 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)515 / 513
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$247
Trades / day169.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 25 $64 −$63 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $456 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Jun 25 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $485 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $143 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $151 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $317 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $320 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $433 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $537 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $512 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $462 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $564 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $1,584 +$22 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $470 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 25 $910 −$460 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 24 $28 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 24? Jun 24 $481 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $468 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $453 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $217 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $499 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? Jun 24 $945 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $465 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $159 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $350 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $114 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $703 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1,544 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2,396 +$22 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $733 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $528 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 23? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $483 −$483 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $732 +$15 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $460 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $90 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $289 29m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $14 49m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $187 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $222 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.47 · official $1.24 (match) · 3500 history records