Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
47 0x47ae…ee94 world 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,667 (+6%) realized +$22,172 · open −$1,505
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate74%211W / 74L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,153per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$12,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,328
7 days−$195
14 days−$3,993
30 days+$6,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$10,242
politics 11% −$4,232
other 10% −$192
finance 6% +$4,042
tech 4% +$788
crypto 2% +$3,708
sports 1% +$3
economics 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 35% -9.8%
≤30d 165 +6.5% -3.6% 71% 32% -6.3%
≤90d 285 +11.0% +0.4% 74% 32% -6.1%
all 285 +11.0% +0.4% 74% 32% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 32% -6.1%
10% -9.2% 17% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -18.0% 12% -23.3%
20% -26.0% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,097) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$346 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$12,270
Realized+$22,172
Unrealized−$1,505
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses211 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions16
Markets (closed)285 / 289
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$1,153
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $2,697 $2,865 +$168 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $2,640 $2,790 +$151 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 41¢ 62¢ $960 $1,431 +$471 (+49%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 83¢ $1,274 $1,273 −$1 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 87¢ 89¢ $905 $926 +$21 (+2%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 70¢ 19¢ $3,203 $874 −$2,329 (-73%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $846 $838 −$8 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 83¢ 93¢ $450 $502 +$52 (+12%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $276 $283 +$7 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $157 $168 +$11 (+7%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $182 $128 −$53 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 88¢ $123 $116 −$8 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 81¢ 88¢ $40 $44 +$3 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 36¢ 72¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+98%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes 33¢ 17¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $4,181 −$4,192 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with vinegar? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Jun 17 $643 −$643 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Jun 17 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will "Ford v. Ferrari" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Grinch" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top US Netfl Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $216 +$31 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $4,915 +$329 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $377 −$12 -3%
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $1,499 −$30 -2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $2,311 +$170 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $520 −$30 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $16,269 +$2,328 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $100 −$42 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $39 +$4 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $214 +$47 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $3,336 +$613 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $331 −$49 -15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $448 +$124 +28%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $716 −$463 -65%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $93 −$79 -84%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $1,383 +$104 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $730 −$140 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,303 +$263 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $469 +$108 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $873 +$21 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,394 +$168 +12%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $151 −$39 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $711 +$149 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,522 +$930 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $491 +$126 +26%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $1,465 −$460 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $194 +$613 +316%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $315 +$20 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $856 +$45 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $297 +$94 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,719 +$7 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $718 +$65 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,101 +$371 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $154 +$63 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $180 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $305 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $186 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 63¢ $252 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 63¢ $0 36m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 66¢ $95 36m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 66¢ $103 36m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $124 38m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $37 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $207 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $278 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $14 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $73 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 71¢ $355 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $365 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2,234 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $391 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $188 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $192 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $11 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $365 2h
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? SELL No 96¢ $23 4h
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? SELL No 96¢ $1 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $355 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,270.01 · official $12,270.16 (match) · 3500 history records