Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47b6…0eb2 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
politics 42% −$18
sports 6% +$33
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -1.7% -11.0% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 129 +2.8% -7.0% 9% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -15.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage113d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 28 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $233 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $462 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $426 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $277 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $270 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $562 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $193 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $193 22d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 23d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.00 · official $26.00 (match) · 392 history records