Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47b9…27b4
sports · 95 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$329 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$260 · open −$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 56
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions22
Markets (closed)73 / 95
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 22 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$106
14 days−$260
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $16 $34 +$18 (+113%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? No 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$6 -48%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 −$45 -62%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $5 +$19 +365%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $26 +$21 +82%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $46 −$14 -31%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $36 +$10 +29%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $66 −$65 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $31 +$52 +171%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $31 +$54 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $31 −$29 -92%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $51 −$8 -16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $7 −$2 -36%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $2 $0 -12%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $8 +$4 +49%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$3 -26%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $7 −$6 -86%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -80%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -91%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $10 −$4 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$174
other 20% −$164
crypto 5% +$29
politics 3% −$15
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 3h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $18 29h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 33¢ $10 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs SELL F5 Esports 5¢ $4 33h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL HEROIC Academy 32¢ $6 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $3 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 28¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs BUY F5 Esports 6¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -36.5% -42.6% 26% 23% -24.5%
≤30d 73 -34.6% -40.9% 23% 22% -30.3%
≤90d 73 -34.6% -40.9% 23% 22% -30.3%
all 73 -34.6% -40.9% 23% 22% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 22% -30.3%
10% -46.5% 21% -37.0%
15% -51.7% 18% -43.1%
20% -56.4% 14% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.60 · official $52.60 (match) · 179 history records