Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

47 0x47bc…558b finance 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$85 (+18%) realized +$60 · open +$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%12W / 5L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$38

7 days+$51

14 days+$67

30 days+$67

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+9.0%	-1.4%	60%	60%	+8.3%
≤30d	17	+16.5%	+5.4%	71%	71%	+8.9%
≤90d	17	+16.5%	+5.4%	71%	71%	+8.9%
all	17	+16.5%	+5.4%	71%	71%	+8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.4%	71%	+8.9%
10%	-4.6%	59%	-1.5%
15%	-13.9%	41%	-11.1%
20%	-22.3%	24%	-19.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late +7% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$120

Realized+$60

Unrealized+$25

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses12 / 5

Open positions6

Markets (closed)17 / 23

History coverage14d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	Yes	12¢	54¢	$10	$45	+$35 (+350%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18?	Down	62¢	68¢	$35	$38	+$3 (+9%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	76¢	68¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-10%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18?	Up	45¢	56¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+24%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18?	Up	42¢	21¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 in June?	Yes	29¢	3¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-88%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 17	$20	+$17	+85%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17?	Jun 17	$25	−$23	-91%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	Jun 17	$57	+$59	+103%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17?	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	Jun 16	$20	+$9	+47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	Jun 15	$10	+$11	+108%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15?	Jun 14	$30	−$2	-5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12?	Jun 12	$20	+$4	+18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?	Jun 11	$40	+$10	+24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10?	Jun 11	$10	+$15	+144%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9?	Jun 10	$20	+$4	+18%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	Jun 09	$10	−$10	-97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5?	Jun 06	$6	+$1	+24%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 5?	Jun 06	$20	+$5	+24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4?	Jun 05	$1	$0	+39%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4?	Jun 05	$1	$0	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18?	SELL Down	55¢	$30	1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Up	45¢	$10	2h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Up	42¢	$10	2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Down	54¢	$31	2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Down	69¢	$25	4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18?	BUY Down	73¢	$15	4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17?	SELL No	3¢	$2	18h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Down	53¢	$20	26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17?	BUY No	27¢	$25	31h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17?	BUY No	7¢	$26	37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	SELL No	94¢	$30	42h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	BUY Yes	49¢	$37	3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15?	SELL Down	84¢	$29	3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15?	BUY Down	88¢	$30	3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	BUY No	63¢	$20	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12?	BUY Down	84¢	$20	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?	BUY Down	76¢	$20	7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?	BUY Down	85¢	$20	7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10?	BUY Up	40¢	$10	8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY No	19¢	$10	9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9?	BUY Down	84¢	$20	9d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	76¢	$20	11d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 in June?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	12d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 5?	BUY Down	91¢	$10	12d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 5?	BUY Down	71¢	$10	12d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5?	BUY Down	80¢	$6	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.68 · official $119.12 (match) · 43 history records