Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47bf…573d
crypto · 131 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$555 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$479 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses56 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage350d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 0 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$256
14 days+$213
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 1 FC Bayern München? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Boxing: Will Usyk win by Decision? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by July 31? No 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$189 +1839%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$23 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 14 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 14 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 14 $16 +$78 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? May 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 43% +$275
other 33% +$106
world 14% −$61
politics 5% −$9
weather 2% −$2
economics 1% −$25
sports 1% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 13h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 13h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 14h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 37h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $11 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $44 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +108.5% +88.7% 56% 50% +37.0%
≤30d 39 +35.6% +22.7% 54% 46% +14.5%
≤90d 87 +20.1% +8.7% 45% 34% +7.0%
all 131 +14.1% +3.2% 43% 34% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 34% +4.9%
10% -6.7% 31% -5.2%
15% -15.7% 28% -14.3%
20% -23.9% 22% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records