Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47c1…97ea crypto 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (515 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$354 (-1%) realized −$187 · open −$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%239W / 40L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day515.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$144
other 25% −$243
sports 7% −$29
politics 5% −$134
world 5% −$24
tech 1% −$14
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (515 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 +6.6% -3.5% 86% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 279 +6.6% -3.5% 86% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 279 +6.6% -3.5% 86% 0% -10.0%
all 279 +6.6% -3.5% 86% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover515.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -21.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -28.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,487
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses239 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions24
Markets (closed)279 / 303
History coverage1d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day515.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $189 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 65¢ 68¢ $156 $164 +$8 (+5%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 80¢ 69¢ $188 $164 −$25 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 99¢ 98¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $146 $141 −$5 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $104 $98 −$6 (-5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 69¢ 68¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 0¢ 88¢ $0 $57 +$57 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $55 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $57 $51 −$6 (-10%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 66¢ 64¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-4%)
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $47 $42 −$5 (-11%)
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? No 64¢ 50¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 49¢ 30¢ $64 $39 −$25 (-39%)
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 84¢ 60¢ $40 $29 −$12 (-29%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 24¢ 11¢ $41 $19 −$22 (-54%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-43%)
Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 20¢ 5¢ $28 $7 −$21 (-75%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 99¢ 72¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 47¢ 1¢ $79 $2 −$78 (-98%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $150 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $56 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $851 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $29 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $68 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $56 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $58 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $943 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $150 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $250 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $52 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $564 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater th Jun 25 $43 −$6 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $213 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $250 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $287 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $77 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,005 −$57 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $45 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $63 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $113 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 16m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 60¢ $27 25m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $859 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 27m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $189 27m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 27m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $55 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 41m
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 64¢ $50 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 67¢ $160 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,486.64 · official $1,460.18 · 768 history records