Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47c1…825f other 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 224d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,095 (+34%) realized +$17,506 · open +$3,589
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%69W / 287L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$8,921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$8,632
other 28% +$8,527
sports 15% +$5,232
culture 10% −$793
politics 8% −$3,349
economics 2% −$911
tech 1% −$9
crypto 0% +$306
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -2.7% -12.0% 12% 11% -71.4%
≤30d 166 -8.0% -16.7% 11% 11% -71.4%
≤90d 208 -20.9% -28.4% 12% 11% -61.4%
all 356 +6.2% -3.9% 19% 19% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 19% -37.9%
10% -13.1% 18% -43.9%
15% -21.5% 17% -49.3%
20% -29.2% 17% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$616 vs −$256 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$8,921
Realized+$17,506
Unrealized+$3,589
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses69 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions43
Markets (closed)356 / 287
History coverage224d ⚠
Avg bet$217
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 99¢ $534 $4,161 +$3,627 (+679%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 25¢ 52¢ $618 $1,313 +$695 (+113%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 14¢ 44¢ $427 $1,291 +$864 (+202%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $756 $876 +$120 (+16%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $210 $270 +$60 (+29%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $52 $215 +$163 (+315%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $97 $141 +$44 (+45%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $60 $105 +$45 (+75%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 20¢ 50¢ $40 $100 +$60 (+150%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 6¢ 38¢ $13 $85 +$73 (+581%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $78 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $689 $35 −$654 (-95%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $35 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 28¢ 33¢ $19 $23 +$3 (+18%)
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No 18¢ 24¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $36 $16 −$20 (-57%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $349 $15 −$334 (-96%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 22¢ 50¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+125%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No 56¢ 74¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+31%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-67%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $432 $9 −$423 (-98%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $15 $8 −$6 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Reform wins <7% of votes? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Labour wins a majority of seats in UK election? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on July 10 at 5PM ET? Jun 21 $84 −$84 -100%
Solana above $160 on June 6? Jun 21 $168 −$168 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 Jun 21 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally? Jun 21 $1,404 −$1,404 -100%
Will Trump say "Starlink" during Pennsylvania rally? Jun 21 $666 −$666 -100%
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean Jun 21 $141 −$141 -100%
Labour wins 35-40% of votes? Jun 21 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times at Wisconsin rally? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening we Jun 21 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Jun 21 $587 −$587 -100%
Will Conservative Party win 140-154 seats in the next UK Election? Jun 21 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days? Jun 21 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Labour win 325-349 seats in the next UK Election? Jun 21 $86 −$86 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 17? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Trump violates gag order? Jun 21 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3+ times at his Arizona speech? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 26? Jun 21 $662 −$662 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 20? Jun 21 $73 −$79 -107%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14 Jun 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Israel military response against Iran in October? Jun 21 $441 −$441 -100%
Will valid votes be fewer than 30 million in South Korean election? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Yoon in jail before August? Jun 21 $916 −$1,352 -148%
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Iran strike on Israel before November? Jun 21 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday? Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the NDA win 326-350 seats? Jun 21 $277 −$277 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on July 14? Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during Oprah livestream? Jun 21 $373 −$373 -100%
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening week Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump trial jury deliberations end on Sunday or later? Jun 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? Jun 21 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34 Jun 21 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 9 or later? Jun 21 $1 −$2 -180%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend? Jun 21 $252 −$252 -100%
Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 90m on opening weekend? Jun 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May? Jun 21 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jun 21 $1,204 −$1,204 -100%
Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2025? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "abortion ban" during her Wisconsin rally? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? Jun 21 $3,160 −$3,160 -100%
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend? Jun 21 $5 +$83 +1511%
Will Trump recognize Syrian government before August? Jun 21 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Trump say "nasty" at his Arizona speech? Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the NDA win 300-325 seats? Jun 21 $970 −$970 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 6¢ $24 30m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 8¢ $22 56m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 8¢ $0 56m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 8¢ $2 56m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 8¢ $40 56m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 12¢ $36 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $13 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $4 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $1 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $3 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $9 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $3 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $3 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $2 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $2 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $10 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $0 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $35 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $20 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $11 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $21 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $12 1h
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $0 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,920.73 · official $9,219.08 · 3500 history records