Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

47 0x47c5…46c3 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$577 (-4%) realized −$633 · open +$56

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate23%5W / 17L

Whale WR17%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$655per market

Trades / day85.0pace

Fees−$288est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-42.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-36.7%	-42.8%	23%	23%	-53.6%
≤30d	22	-36.7%	-42.8%	23%	23%	-53.6%
≤90d	22	-36.7%	-42.8%	23%	23%	-53.6%
all	22	-36.7%	-42.8%	23%	23%	-53.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover85.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-42.8%	23%	-53.6%
10%	-48.2%	23%	-58.0%
15% ← realistic here	-53.2%	18%	-62.1%
20%	-57.8%	14%	-65.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 17% (≥$741) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -11% → late -63% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$385 vs −$532 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$954

Realized−$633

Unrealized+$56

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses5 / 17

Whale WR (big bets)17%

Est. fees paid−$288

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$655

Trades / day85.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	40¢	42¢	$898	$954	+$56 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	Jun 27	$506	+$175	+35%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$1,123	−$381	-34%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	Jun 27	$541	−$534	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,462	−$819	-56%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$754	−$741	-98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 27	$811	−$688	-85%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$133	−$74	-56%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 27	$307	−$243	-79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$716	−$702	-98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 27	$276	−$132	-48%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$3,644	−$2,424	-66%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5	Jun 27	$104	−$95	-92%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$352	−$218	-62%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$410	−$401	-98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$1,063	+$506	+48%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$202	+$117	+58%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 26	$153	+$447	+291%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$509	+$682	+134%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$307	−$290	-94%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Jun 26	$700	−$688	-98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$326	−$320	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$307	−$300	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	40¢	$914	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	86¢	$681	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	63¢	$506	1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	24¢	$741	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	55¢	$34	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	56¢	$507	1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	30¢	$102	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	17¢	$643	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	33¢	$245	1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	SELL New Zealand	9¢	$123	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	12¢	$58	2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	8¢	$63	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$438	4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$144	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	4¢	$294	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	23¢	$39	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	23¢	$102	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	1¢	$8	4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	14¢	$134	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	24¢	$3	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	23¢	$102	4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	24¢	$102	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	25¢	$102	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	25¢	$102	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	26¢	$102	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	27¢	$102	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	30¢	$102	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $953.65 · official $953.65 (match) · 88 history records