Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47c6…2fe4 sports 898 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,555 (-3%) realized −$6,308 · open −$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%487W / 407L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$1,650est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$713
7 days−$540
14 days−$1,162
30 days−$1,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$5,821
other 3% −$1,646
world 0% +$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +0.1% -9.5% 53% 46% -12.1%
≤30d 213 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 46% -12.1%
≤90d 692 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 47% -13.5%
all 894 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 47% -12.7%
10% -20.3% 45% -21.0%
15% -28.0% 41% -28.6%
20% -35.1% 38% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$173 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$6,308
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses487 / 407
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,650
Open positions3
Markets (closed)894 / 898
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$224
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 894 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 28¢ 28¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 46¢ 24¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $202 $2 −$200 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $210 −$208 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $204 +$281 +138%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $304 +$106 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $201 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $198 +$232 +117%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$60 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $104 +$103 +99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $260 −$72 -28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $99 +$201 +203%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $100 +$144 +143%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $201 +$159 +79%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$189 +94%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $193 +$86 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 14 $204 −$36 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$168 +83%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$140 +70%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $199 +$151 +76%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $100 +$92 +92%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $205 +$215 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $221 +$149 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $214 +$126 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $107 −$66 -61%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $194 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $201 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $201 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 41¢ $204 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 58¢ $203 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 41¢ $65 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $46 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 63¢ $101 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $7 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $2 12h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $2 12h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $42 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 46¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 59¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 59¢ $71 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 59¢ $126 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 45¢ $102 13h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $193 20h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $0 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $50 24h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $50 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $203 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $51 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.36 · official $165.29 · 3500 history records