Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47c6…1ca6 finance 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$842 (+3%) realized +$816 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$651per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days−$644
14 days+$430
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$3,345
finance 33% −$2,836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -34.7% -40.9% 40% 40% -16.2%
≤30d 36 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 36% -7.7%
≤90d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 34% -7.7%
all 38 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 34% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 34% -7.7%
10% -26.4% 18% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 11% -24.6%
20% -40.0% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,031) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$175 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2,338
Realized+$816
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage33d
Avg bet$651
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Up 78¢ 85¢ $1,833 $2,008 +$175 (+10%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? Down 20¢ 14¢ $480 $331 −$149 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 24 $319 −$159 -50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $474 −$474 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $2,349 +$777 +33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,244 +$172 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 21 $665 −$665 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 21 $1,047 −$947 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 21 $401 −$401 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,601 +$415 +26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $561 +$677 +121%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,124 +$972 +86%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $872 +$49 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $789 −$152 -19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,382 +$169 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $1,415 −$156 -11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,370 +$186 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $379 −$60 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,125 +$67 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $762 −$81 -11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $720 +$95 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $351 +$32 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $765 −$25 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? Jun 06 $120 −$29 -24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? Jun 06 $78 +$8 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 06 $201 +$97 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 06 $602 +$94 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $251 −$24 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $477 +$32 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $512 −$89 -17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $186 +$106 +57%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,031 −$72 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $24 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $111 +$25 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $148 −$1 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $20 −$12 -57%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $77 +$6 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 19¢ $2 13m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 79¢ $7 13m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 19¢ $2 13m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 79¢ $7 13m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 93¢ $140 30m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 6¢ $9 30m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 93¢ $37 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 6¢ $7 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 93¢ $103 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 8¢ $9 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 90¢ $99 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 6¢ $3 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 5¢ $6 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 94¢ $104 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 5¢ $6 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 94¢ $104 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 93¢ $68 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 18¢ $11 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 80¢ $48 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 75¢ $8 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 23¢ $2 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 20¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 78¢ $8 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 18¢ $2 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 80¢ $8 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 79¢ $108 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,338.47 · official $2,338.47 (match) · 1396 history records