Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x47c8…d3d2 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$12
other 13% −$1
politics 12% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 3% +$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 5% -7.9%
all 44 +0.4% -9.1% 45% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -8.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage269d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $51 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $3 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $10 −$1 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $51 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $43 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $28 +$2 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $47 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $34 +$7 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $4 $0 -12%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $4 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $25 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $16 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $36 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $44 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $8 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $17 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $26 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $51 45h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records