Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x47cd…5648 politics 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$25 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$13
sports 23% +$39
other 15% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤90d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
all 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 100% +2.4%
10% -7.4% 0% -7.4%
15% -16.3% 0% -16.3%
20% -24.5% 0% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$939
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $285 $293 +$8 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $170 $173 +$3 (+2%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $153 $132 −$21 (-14%)
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $96 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No 85¢ 87¢ $87 $89 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 19¢ 18¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $15 −$1 (-9%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $295 +$39 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.76 · official $938.76 (match) · 14 history records