Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47d8…0573 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$162 (+10%) realized +$217 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$170
sports 11% −$106
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 39% -1.1%
≤30d 18 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 39% -1.1%
≤90d 18 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 39% -1.1%
all 18 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 39% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 39% -1.1%
10% -38.3% 39% -10.5%
15% -44.2% 33% -19.2%
20% -49.7% 22% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$30 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$561
Realized+$217
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 47¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-11%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $147 $132 −$15 (-10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $69 $52 −$17 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $154 −$85 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 +$136 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$22 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$94 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $182 +$99 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$29 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -83%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$25 +25%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $70 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $69 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $150 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 15h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $91 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $47 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $23 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $182 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.52 · official $560.95 (match) · 35 history records