Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47d9…4e16 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$21
politics 31% −$16
sports 11% +$56
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 113 +6.9% -3.3% 7% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -12.5% 3% -18.1%
15% -21.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -28.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×16.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage133d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $377 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $276 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $304 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $655 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $350 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $316 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $281 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $343 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 16 $338 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $547 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $337 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $255 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $352 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $553 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $263 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $344 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $317 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $355 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $311 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $301 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $281 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 9h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 15d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $247 20d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $247 23d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $247 23d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $247 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $246 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $246 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $278 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $278 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $276 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $276 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $304 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $304 28d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $341 28d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $341 28d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $350 28d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $350 29d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $316 29d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $316 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 30d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 30d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 30d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $246 31d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $246 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records