Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

47 0x47de…b989 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$311 (+34%) realized +$305 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-16.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-8.2%	-16.9%	58%	58%	+25.5%
≤30d	12	-8.2%	-16.9%	58%	58%	+25.5%
≤90d	12	-8.2%	-16.9%	58%	58%	+25.5%
all	12	-8.2%	-16.9%	58%	58%	+25.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.9%	58%	+25.5%
10%	-24.9%	58%	+13.5%
15%	-32.1%	50%	+2.5%
20%	-38.8%	17%	-7.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -25% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$56 vs −$15 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.34 per $1 lost it wins $5.34

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized+$305

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage6d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	92¢	98¢	$92	$98	+$6 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$62	+$31	+50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$55	+$28	+50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$317	+$152	+48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$24	−$23	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$71	+70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$50	+$55	+109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$24	−$24	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$24	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$67	+$33	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$92	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$62	18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	50¢	$20	19h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$55	24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$317	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$24	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$50	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$24	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$100	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$67	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.95 · official $97.95 (match) · 21 history records