Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e1…da31 sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$234 (-6%) realized −$344 · open +$110
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$661
7 days+$632
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$278
other 37% +$433
world 1% +$4
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% +$5
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +27.6% +15.4% 71% 71% +13.8%
≤30d 44 -5.8% -14.8% 57% 52% -8.2%
≤90d 44 -5.8% -14.8% 57% 52% -8.2%
all 44 -5.8% -14.8% 57% 52% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 52% -8.2%
10% -23.0% 43% -16.9%
15% -30.4% 32% -25.0%
20% -37.2% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage12d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $202 $324 +$122 (+60%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $33 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $71 +$50 +71%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 +$20 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $622 +$90 +14%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1 Jun 21 $31 +$141 +458%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $415 +$207 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $64 +$21 +33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $99 +$21 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $245 +$29 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$59 +164%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $120 +$59 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $70 +$63 +89%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$101 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 +$22 +38%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $66 −$65 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $7 +$5 +69%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $55 +$60 +109%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$18 +34%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $92 +$59 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 9.5 Corners Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +35%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $260 −$202 -78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $178 −$176 -99%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $48 −$48 -98%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +30%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $28 +$10 +34%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$38 +38%
Lee Donggyeong: 1+ shots Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $115 +$115 +100%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $50 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $622 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $30 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $35 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $34 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: BUY 24¢ $26 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $193 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $81 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $18 45h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL 82¢ $94 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $245 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1 BUY 18¢ $31 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 30¢ $36 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $17 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.49 · official $344.49 (match) · 162 history records