Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e2…40bc world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1
politics 22% $0
world 22% $0
crypto 10% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 12% -9.1%
all 33 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 −$1 -17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $19 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in September? Oct 02 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $30 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $30 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $4 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $13 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $17 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 21d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $27 255d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $27 255d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $27 255d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 256d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $27 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records