Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e4…894f other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
other 23% $0
politics 9% +$1
crypto 8% −$2
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 13 -1.8% -11.1% 8% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -1.8% -11.1% 8% 0% -10.5%
all 53 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage465d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 −$3 -13%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $60 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $158 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $4 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $40 $0 -1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea May 31 $13 $0 -2%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 10 $12 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $19 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $23 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 30h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $42 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $45 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $46 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $46 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 158 history records