Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x47e4…aa4a other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,622 (-9%) realized −$1,666 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%21W / 39L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,829
14 days−$737
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1,755
sports 36% +$1,932
crypto 16% −$651
world 10% −$1,340
politics 0% −$22
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -43.9% -49.3% 24% 24% -31.8%
≤30d 53 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 53 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 36% -12.9%
all 60 -27.2% -34.1% 35% 32% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 32% -20.1%
10% -40.4% 32% -27.7%
15% -46.2% 30% -34.7%
20% -51.5% 30% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$216 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$1,460
Realized−$1,666
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses21 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 67
History coverage168d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $681 $846 +$165 (+24%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $300 $254 −$47 (-15%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $240 $150 −$90 (-38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $145 $149 +$4 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $175 −$172 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $454 −$24 -5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 −$88 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $605 −$596 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $221 −$217 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $348 +$276 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $146 −$142 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $829 +$514 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $226 −$87 -39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $752 −$736 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $119 −$116 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$308 +307%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $345 −$338 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $803 +$246 +31%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 −$125 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $655 +$373 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $233 −$227 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $278 +$305 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $496 −$489 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,007 −$996 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $561 +$615 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $530 +$2,029 +383%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $237 −$235 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $255 −$252 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $392 +$430 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $254 −$251 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$73 +72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 +$121 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$60 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $117 +$64 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $143 +$121 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $133 −$126 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $207 +$169 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $169 +$154 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $210 −$203 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $330 −$318 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $154 +$104 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $389 +$15 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $284 +$298 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $306 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Port BUY 10¢ $153 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $175 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 26¢ $256 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $430 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $91 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $605 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $221 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $454 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $146 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $348 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $139 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $138 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $205 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $63 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $247 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $296 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $107 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $226 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $456 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $829 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $119 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $141 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $57 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $147 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $803 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $128 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $152 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,459.94 · official $1,611.33 · 292 history records