Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47e6…c039 weather 1188 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$528 (-1%) realized −$566 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%662W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$87
14 days+$108
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 19% -5.2%
≤30d 213 -1.8% -11.1% 86% 15% -10.1%
≤90d 1160 -11.2% -19.6% 57% 21% -9.4%
all 1160 -11.2% -19.6% 57% 21% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 21% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 9% -18.1%
15% -34.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -40.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,019
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses662 / 498
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1160 / 1188
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 91¢ 94¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 92¢ 95¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? No 91¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 91¢ 91¢ $196 $196 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 93¢ 86¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 95¢ 97¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? No 89¢ 97¢ $128 $140 +$12 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? No 93¢ 95¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $59 $62 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $51 $57 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 86¢ 90¢ $47 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? No 92¢ 88¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 94¢ 87¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 89¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? No 94¢ 93¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 −$61 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $107 −$102 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $126 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $183 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 −$174 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$25 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $162 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $180 +$19 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$21 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $182 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $180 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $24 +$23 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $201 24m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 73¢ $39 32m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $45 32m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $65 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $93 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $129 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $25 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $49 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $53 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 86¢ $22 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 87¢ $152 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $201 15h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $201 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $139 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $50 19h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $165 19h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $53 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $201 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,019.49 · official $2,020.04 (match) · 3500 history records