Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47e9…732c
weather · 305 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$621 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$638 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,294
Realized−$638
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses275 / 30
Open positions28
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage7d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day513.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 28 History 305 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,245
7 days−$638
14 days−$638
30 days−$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 94¢ $106 $103 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $76 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $62 $62 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? No 98¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 98¢ 95¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 95¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 13? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? Jun 12 $83 −$82 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28? Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30? Jun 12 $12 −$10 -83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? Jun 12 $85 −$83 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29? Jun 12 $84 −$84 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May Jun 12 $96 −$95 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 14? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 12 $189 −$189 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or higher on May 26? Jun 12 $51 −$58 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 17? Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 19? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 13? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $139 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $127 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $136 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$701
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $19 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $14 42m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $17 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $19 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $31 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $11 56m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 +11.4% +0.8% 90% 4% -12.6%
≤30d 305 +11.4% +0.8% 90% 4% -12.6%
≤90d 305 +11.4% +0.8% 90% 4% -12.6%
all 305 +11.4% +0.8% 90% 4% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover513.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 4% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -21.0%
15% -17.6% 3% -28.6%
20% -25.7% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,293.91 · official $1,293.69 (match) · 3500 history records