Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

47 0x47ed…0127 other 22 markets active 7h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$95 (+20%) realized +$95 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)+17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+29.8%	+17.4%	35%	35%	+25.7%
≤30d	20	+29.8%	+17.4%	35%	35%	+25.7%
≤90d	20	+29.8%	+17.4%	35%	35%	+25.7%
all	20	+29.8%	+17.4%	35%	35%	+25.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.4%	35%	+25.7%
10%	+6.2%	35%	+13.7%
15%	-4.1%	35%	+2.7%
20%	-13.5%	25%	-7.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +48% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$9 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$95

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage4d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$5	+$31	+596%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$5	−$1	-14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+51%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$5	+$23	+442%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$18	−$18	-98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$56	+540%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$15	−$5	-32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$104	+$96	+93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$40	+39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	19¢	$4	7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	95¢	$15	7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	62¢	$10	8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	29¢	$5	20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	16¢	$5	20h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	20h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	18¢	$5	33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	35h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	53¢	$41	35h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	16¢	$18	44h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	35¢	$14	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	36¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	9¢	$10	2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY No	1¢	$5	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	52¢	$18	3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL	92¢	$200	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$140	3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	0¢	$5	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records