Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x47f1…59af other 65 markets active 9h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+10%) realized +$27 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 38L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$74
other 39% −$38
crypto 15% −$11
world 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +7.1% -3.1% 41% 41% +1.1%
≤30d 64 +7.1% -3.1% 41% 41% +1.1%
≤90d 64 +7.1% -3.1% 41% 41% +1.1%
all 64 +7.1% -3.1% 41% 41% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 41% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 41% -8.5%
15% -20.8% 41% -17.4%
20% -28.6% 38% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +137%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $1 +$4 +408%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +413%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +237%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $2 +$5 +237%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$5 +226%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -43%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +92%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +203%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +225%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +440%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 9h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 9h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 10h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 10h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $12 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $1 11h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 11h
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 12h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 100¢ $7 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 13h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.01 · official $2.01 (match) · 129 history records