Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x47f3…b4b4 politics 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$19
other 42% −$14
sports 4% +$84
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 94 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 6% -9.4%
all 109 +1.2% -8.5% 11% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 8% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×13.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage117d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $378 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $354 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $235 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $325 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $488 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $296 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 10 $331 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $272 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $303 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $228 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $317 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 19 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $320 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $329 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $39 29h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 34h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 37h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 45h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 26d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 27d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $270 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.94 · official $111.94 (match) · 339 history records