Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47f5…3ccf crypto 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,871 (-4%) realized −$3,591 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate66%155W / 80L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days+$1,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,096
world 0% −$280
sports 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -8.6% -17.3% 33% 33% +141.1%
≤90d 235 -9.7% -18.3% 66% 25% -13.3%
all 235 -9.7% -18.3% 66% 25% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 25% -13.3%
10% -26.1% 16% -21.6%
15% -33.2% 11% -29.2%
20% -39.8% 9% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$191 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$3,591
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses155 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)235 / 237
History coverage152d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $62 $52 −$10 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $278 $9 −$269 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $647 +$1,128 +174%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET Apr 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 19 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 19 $12 +$19 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 19 $117 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8PM ET Apr 19 $25 +$89 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1PM ET Apr 18 $33 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 18 $278 −$278 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 17 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 17 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 17 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 17 $156 +$14 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 1AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 17 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 16 $254 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 16 $341 −$341 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 16 $14 +$17 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 16 $3 +$41 +1242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 15 $232 +$99 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 15 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 15 $250 +$28 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 15 $724 −$474 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 15 $501 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $33 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $235 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $0 3d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY No 8¢ $6 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,775 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $6 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $555 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $74 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $11 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $13 17d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ $16 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $22 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 59d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $29 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $12 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.67 · official $60.67 (match) · 1930 history records