Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x47f6…8324 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+7%) realized +$0 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$34
other 20% +$8
crypto 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.2% +12.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 12 +24.2% +12.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤90d 12 +24.2% +12.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
all 12 +24.2% +12.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 50% +3.5%
10% +1.6% 50% -6.4%
15% -8.2% 50% -15.5%
20% -17.2% 42% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 14¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+317%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Under 16¢ 34¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+112%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $13 1h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $4 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $4 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 30¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 24h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $6 24h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 64¢ $10 24h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 64¢ $10 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 24h
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 55¢ $6 3d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 28¢ $5 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $5 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $5 3d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.38 · official $70.39 (match) · 29 history records