Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x47f6…b051 sports 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$754 (-3%) realized −$754 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%128W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$517
14 days−$320
30 days−$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,520
other 16% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -33.2% -39.6% 34% 31% -34.9%
≤30d 141 -4.2% -13.4% 49% 48% -16.2%
≤90d 252 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 50% -13.1%
all 254 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 50% -12.7%
10% -22.4% 48% -21.0%
15% -29.9% 44% -28.7%
20% -36.7% 37% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$81 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses128 / 126
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage154d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $67 +$73 +108%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $98 +$121 +124%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 17 $67 +$33 +50%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 15 $75 +$75 +100%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $92 +$55 +60%
Cobolli vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $75 +$55 +73%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$31 +108%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$63 +172%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $155 −$153 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +102%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $30 −$20 -65%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $50 +$50 +101%
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $78 −$56 -72%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $69 −$68 -100%
Landaluce vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $70 +$54 +76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $71 +$55 +77%
Struff vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $52 +$48 +93%
Hurkacz vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $100 +$100 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Diallo vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 09 $59 +$53 +91%
Agut vs. Giron: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 09 $62 +$58 +93%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $99 +$81 +83%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $64 −$64 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $62 +$10 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $36 −$22 -63%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $205 +$295 +144%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $101 +$30 +30%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $57 +$43 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 3h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 52¢ $29 17h
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Rybakina 61¢ $30 17h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 52¢ $1 18h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Shelton 52¢ $1 18h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $51 20h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $16 20h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 48¢ $78 22h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 48¢ $1 22h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 48¢ $17 22h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 48¢ $9 22h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 90¢ $104 40h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $43 41h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Tien 66¢ $67 41h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 38¢ $8 42h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 38¢ $31 42h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $14 43h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $45 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) BUY Diallo 40¢ $12 2d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 48¢ $60 2d
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Fonseca 47¢ $27 3d
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Fonseca 47¢ $6 3d
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bublik 47¢ $33 3d
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 73¢ $36 3d
Cobolli vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 3d
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 57¢ $3 3d
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 57¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 876 history records