Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47f7…0312
weather · 425 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,662 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,997 · open −$104
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,454
Realized+$3,997
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses358 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions81
Markets (closed)450 / 425
History coverage11d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day311.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 81 History 450 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$3,732
14 days+$3,997
30 days+$3,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Atalanta qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,846 $1,846 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $1,632 $1,670 +$38 (+2%)
Will Manuel Neuer be in Germany's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1,187 $1,204 +$18 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé be in France's Starting 11? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $932 $939 +$7 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $726 $722 −$4 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $508 $492 −$15 (-3%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 79¢ 76¢ $472 $453 −$19 (-4%)
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $447 $442 −$5 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $390 $407 +$17 (+4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $405 $393 −$12 (-3%)
Will Marcus Thuram be in France's Starting 11? No 93¢ 97¢ $350 $365 +$15 (+4%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 89¢ $327 $312 −$14 (-4%)
Will João Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $293 $297 +$4 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $208 $239 +$31 (+15%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $225 $235 +$10 (+4%)
Will Michael Olise be in France's Starting 11? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will 1+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $196 $199 +$3 (+2%)
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $187 $187 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $190 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Will Joshua Kimmich be in Germany's Starting 11? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $176 $177 +$2 (+1%)
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 81¢ $184 $162 −$22 (-12%)
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $148 $155 +$6 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $145 $148 +$3 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $148 $145 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 31? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 1? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 2? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 1? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +233%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -137%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 1? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 1? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 1? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 31? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 31? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 31? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$758
other 11% +$1,226
world 4% +$891
politics 2% +$1,036
tech 1% +$146
crypto 0% +$7
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 2m
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 20m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $240 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Kevin De Bruyne be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will Jérémy Doku be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $67 2h
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 2h
Will Harry Kane be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $99 2h
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $421 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $127 2h
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $108 2h
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will Vitinha be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $130 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $129 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 292 -20.0% -27.6% 72% 4% -5.0%
≤30d 450 -14.4% -22.6% 80% 3% -6.9%
≤90d 450 -14.4% -22.6% 80% 3% -6.9%
all 450 -14.4% -22.6% 80% 3% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover311.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 3% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 2% -15.8%
15% -36.7% 1% -24.0%
20% -42.9% 1% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,454.49 · official $13,460.33 (match) · 3500 history records