Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
47 0x47f7…8d38 crypto 1248 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 228d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,375 (+0%) realized +$2,885 · open +$490
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%1144W / 75L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,166per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$27,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$59
14 days+$195
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$1,374
other 45% +$736
finance 4% +$1,645
tech 2% +$169
politics 2% +$173
sports 1% +$55
weather 0% +$5
world 0% +$160
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 127 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 607 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 1219 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 5% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.58 per $1 lost it wins $6.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$27,086
Realized+$2,885
Unrealized+$490
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1144 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1219 / 1248
History coverage229d ⚠
Avg bet$1,166
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $9,662 $10,003 +$341 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $8,579 $8,650 +$71 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,967 $3,029 +$62 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,299 $1,301 +$2 (+0%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $707 $732 +$25 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $120? No 100¢ 100¢ $390 $389 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $340 −$1 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $326 $326 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $236 $236 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $217 $217 −$1 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $268 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $158 $158 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $100? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340-$345 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $335? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $330? Yes 99¢ 94¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 99¢ 94¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$275 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $340? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3,905 +$11 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $0 June 8-14? Jun 15 $457 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 June 8-14? Jun 15 $233 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 8-14? Jun 15 $301 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2,318 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1,193 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1,397 +$4 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $136 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $335 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $179 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $207 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $100? Jun 12 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $60? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $130? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $194 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $50? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $110? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$335 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 12 $136 +$2 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $345? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $400? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,725 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $391 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? Jun 11 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 10? Jun 11 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,467 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $604 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,151 +$2 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $168 47m
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? BUY No 97¢ $215 47m
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $268 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 48m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $402 49m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $609 49m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 50m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 51m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $389 51m
Will Uzbekistan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 54m
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $326 1h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 100¢ $236 1h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $302 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $340 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 30h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 30h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $345? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 30h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $340? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 30h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $158 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $496 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $214 39h
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$275 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 99¢ $10 39h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $229 39h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $335? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 39h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $330? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 39h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340-$345 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $30 39h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $30 39h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$335 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 99¢ $10 39h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $5 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $146 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,085.95 · official $27,091.26 (match) · 3500 history records