Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47f7…c87b crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$145 (+12%) realized +$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 44L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day110.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$30
other 33% +$27
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +53.6% +39.0% 38% 37% -13.6%
≤30d 71 +53.6% +39.0% 38% 37% -13.6%
≤90d 71 +53.6% +39.0% 38% 37% -13.6%
all 71 +53.6% +39.0% 38% 37% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.0% 37% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here +25.7% 32% -21.8%
15% +13.5% 30% -29.4%
20% +2.4% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +107% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$11 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$13 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$10 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$18 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$24 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$11 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$6 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$14 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$14 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$17 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$9 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$18 +1060%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +85%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$4 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$176 +4605%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$17 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$2 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $45 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.82 · official $99.82 (match) · 209 history records