Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x47f9…ebb8
other · 350 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,227 -44%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,849 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$185
Realized−$1,849
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses109 / 211
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)320 / 350
History coverage131d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 35 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+8%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 62¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+58%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 13¢ 25¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 10 $3 $0 -16%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Palestine" in April? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 $0 -43%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Jun 10 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? May 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 06 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Arc de Trump" or "Arch de Trump" or "Trump Arch" in Ap May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? May 06 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? May 06 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? May 06 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026? May 06 $9 −$2 -18%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump name "Hillary" in April? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $6 +$1 +17%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Apr 25 $250 −$13 -5%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 24 $11 −$10 -88%
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 24 $6 −$5 -84%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 24 $69 −$66 -95%
Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 24 $28 −$19 -69%
Will Trump say "Disgusting" in April? Apr 24 $1 $0 +25%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 24 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $9 −$3 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $8 −$2 -28%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Apr 21 $5 −$2 -38%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Apr 20 $15 −$4 -28%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 18 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% −$1,834
crypto 4% −$19
politics 3% −$1
sports 1% +$7
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 12h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 12h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 44h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 38% -10.0%
≤30d 22 +5.2% -4.8% 41% 36% -9.8%
≤90d 194 -35.1% -41.3% 30% 24% -55.4%
all 320 -7.3% -16.1% 34% 29% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 29% -44.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 24% -49.6%
15% -31.5% 20% -54.5%
20% -38.2% 15% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.98 · official $184.98 (match) · 3500 history records