Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x47fd…be96 other 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$21
14 days−$33
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 25% −$12
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
economics 5% −$9
world 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$6
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage141d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $570 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $656 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 19 $358 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $532 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $328 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $540 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $562 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $694 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $363 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $249 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $341 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 25m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 3h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $65 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $65 8h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 9h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 11h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 12h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $65 16h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $65 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 21h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 22h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 28h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 30h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 30h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $66 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 34h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $66 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 40h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 43h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records