Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4801…72a5 crypto 411 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%166W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$30
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.6% -8.0% 50% 50% +14.4%
≤30d 161 -1.8% -11.1% 89% 3% -7.7%
≤90d 411 -41.9% -47.4% 40% 3% -11.1%
all 411 -41.9% -47.4% 40% 3% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.4% 3% -11.1%
10% -52.4% 2% -19.6%
15% -57.0% 2% -27.3%
20% -61.3% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses166 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)411 / 411
History coverage55d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 411 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $18 +$16 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 883 history records