Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4801…28f7 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
sports 27% −$5
other 20% −$8
economics 9% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 32% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 39 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 0% -9.7%
all 45 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage528d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $114 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $73 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $43 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $126 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $43 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $42 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $9 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $273 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 −$4 -10%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $146 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 24 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $18 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $42 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $40 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $4 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records