Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4807…71b9 crypto 1413 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%1123W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day165.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.8%
≤30d 1413 +3.0% -6.8% 79% 36% -10.1%
≤90d 1413 +3.0% -6.8% 79% 36% -10.1%
all 1413 +3.0% -6.8% 79% 36% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 36% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 7% -18.7%
15% -23.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -31.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1123 / 290
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1413 / 1413
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day165.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1413 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records