Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

48 0x4807…68b4 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$59 (-31%) realized −$59 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -94% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip

Net edge-94%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-94.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-93.7%	-94.3%	0%	0%	-90.4%
≤30d	2	-93.7%	-94.3%	0%	0%	-90.4%
≤90d	2	-93.7%	-94.3%	0%	0%	-90.4%
all	2	-93.7%	-94.3%	0%	0%	-90.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-94.3%	0%	-90.4%
10%	-94.8%	0%	-91.4%
15%	-95.3%	0%	-92.2%
20%	-95.8%	0%	-93.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -89% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -94% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$27 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$129

Realized−$59

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	26¢	$28	$33	+$5 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	−$45	-87%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$29	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	2¢	$6	5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.83 · official $135.87 · 6 history records